Kentucky Derby Preview

Alright, from Swine Flu to the "Fastest Two Minutes In Sports" here is the preview for the 135th run for the roses, the first jewel in the elusive triple crown, the Kentucky Derby. There was some not-so-scientific way I did this, so there are no promises but this is how they ranked out:

Dunkirk (4-1) Top pick mathematically, and it shows. Before last year no horse with three or less starts had ever won the Derby. Horses that have won in Florida have won 3 of the last 5 Derbies. The under side to Dunkirk is he's only raced once against anyone in this field and finished second to the now scratched Quality Road.

Musket Man (20-1) This maybe a solid lock if your looking for a trifecta horse. Musket Man has won all but one of the races he's been in. He's only ever finished as low as 3rd, and that was behind General Quarters, who he has since beaten.

Hold Me Back (15-1)/ Pioneerof The Nile (4-1) Both of these horses look like they can be strong contenders. Hold Me Back is one of three stable mates looking to win the Derby, however has finished average against this field with a recent 2nd place finish against General Quarters in the Blue Grass. Pioneerof The Nile, another trifecta pick, is a solid horse, but what do you expect at 4-1. Surprisingly not the morning line favorite, Pioneerof the Nile has beaten I Want Revenge every time out and I really don't see why not this time.

Chocolate Candy (20-1) If your looking for a "safe long shot" this is it. California horses have done traditionally well in the Derby over the past decade or so. Chocolate Candy has fared well with top three finishes against horses in this field and may fair well on a trifecta ticket with a place or show. He's loss to Pioneerof The Nile twice, but has placed second and third respectively.

I Want Revenge (3-1) Morning Line Favorite. I think this may have something to do with the fact that I Want Revenge is a stable mate of Big Brown's and therefore getting a bit of an edge. It could also just be the handicappers trying to flush money going one way. I Want Revenge is not Big Brown, and has not shown that he could beat Pioneerof the Nile. In fact, the only horse he's beaten and taken first in was against 30-1 West Side Bernie.

Mine That Bird (50-1) Hasn't really beaten anybody. Placed higher than Advice in one race, but didn't find himself in the top three in that race. Not a real competitor, but at 50-1, that's what you get.

General Quarters (20-1) Hometown favorite, General Quarters is a one man show. The owner, a former area principal, his story being told everywhere. If your even thinking about it, I say take it in a trifecta. There, in my opinion, is a lot to be said about familiarity in racing and General Quarters has ran at Churchill Downs the most of anyone in the field. He's shown that he can win, winning the Blue Grass against Hold Me Back. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset out of this horse.

Papa Clem (20-1) Strong horse who just may not be lucky enough to win. He's coming off a win but it was against horses that have since scratched. He's seen Pioneerof the Nile once before, so there is some familiarity. He was one of the favorites but has since dropped off. That's not to say at 20-1 he doesn't find himself in the mix.

Friesan Fire (5-1) An Arkansas horse who has beaten Papa Clem once already. 5-1 is a solid odd, and he's maintained his ability to stay on the lips as one of the favorites. He'd be a good take in a trifecta.

West Side Bernie (30-1) The inside most post position in a 20 horse field, West Side Bernie is going to need a great start in order to do anything. He's never really proven he could be a factor against this field, and will fail to do anything Saturday.

Regal Ransom (30-1) One of two horses that have spent the majority of their career outside the US. Him and Desert Party, while some peoples favorites, the Derby, in recent history at least, has never seen a horse win the roses who has ran in Dubai. Not to say that he won't do well, if he can get up front with Desert Party, the duo may push each other, but they'd have to be joined in a box.

Mr. Hot Stuff (30-1) One of those triplets who are stable mates, Mr. Hot Stuff has finished well against this field, coming in third twice. I think he's more there to help stable mate Hold Me Back than to be a competitor, I don't see Mr. Hot Stuff being strong in this field.

Desert Party (15-1) He, along with Regal Ransom, if they can both get near the lead may push each other, but I think they'd have to do it together. Desert Party and Regal Ransom have finished 1-2 in their last three races together in Dubai, but this maybe to much for them. The one thing Desert Party has is the outside, meaning he can get wide and make a run.

Advice (30-1) The last of the three stable mates, I just don't see it. Again, more to help hopeful Hold Me Back keep pace more than anything, I think really. Advice had beaten now scratch Square Eddie, but that is really all he's done in his career.

Flying Private (50-1) The far outside post, is a long way away. He's never really beaten anyone in the field, which is why his odds are what they are, I'd have to pass on Flying Private, unless I owned him. Which I don't. The field is too strong, and Flying Private has proven what he's made of with a 5th place finish against the field.

Summer Bird (50-1) Remember all that about a horse with 3 wins never winning the Derby prior to Big Brown? Well Summer Bird is no Big Brown. He's finished 3rd against the field, but I think the inexperience will do him in. But for $2 you'd get a $100.

As of the time all my research had finished, there have been 3 additions to the Derby. Here they are, take them at your own risk:
Join In The Dance (50-1)
Nowhere To Hide (50-1)
Atomic Rain (50-1)

Here is two trifecta's you maybe interested to take: Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man and General Quarters. The other: Chocolate Candy, Friesan Fire and General Quarters.

Good Luck to everyone.