Kentucky Derby 136 Preview

So last year, although mathematically Mine That Bird did well, we didn't pick him and he went on to win the Derby under Calvin Borel. This year's Derby is calling for the same type of weather as last year, so the inside of the track is where you want to be, which is good for defending Derby jockey Calvin Bo"rail" and his horse Super Saver. But we have a new mathematical system, again, no promises because the race is ran on dirt, not paper.

Sidney's Candy (5-1) Post: 20 Jockey: Joel Talamo
This sweet little dessert is the leader mathematically and is among the early favorites. Winner of all three graded races he entered in California this year, with Talamo aboard and he should be a shoe-in. The issue arises with his position in the far end gate. He's a fast horse, winning all three wire to wire and will need that speed to get ahead of a fast field. Even better, he's beaten 4 of the Derby contenders, including morning line favorite Lookin At Lucky. The other issue comes in the fact that he's never raced in a field this big, which may explain the outside post position. But, its hard to win a Derby from the 20 gate. All his wins have come from the inside gates.

Stately Victor (30-1) Post: 6 Jockey: Alan Garcia
The second best mathematical horse already through a monkey wrench in all reasoning. The only graded win for this long shot was at the Bluegrass Stakes in Keeneland earlier this month, and that too was as a long shot (40-1). But he did beat 3 Derby contenders under Garcia. Of course, the Bluegrass was less than 10 horses deep, and Stately Victor is a stalking horse and may have a problem keeping pace.

Line of David (30-1) Post: 5 Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Similar to Stately Victor, Line of David has only won one graded race this year, and that was the Arkansas Derby at a solid 17-1. The plus side maybe that Bejarano has ridden several of the other Derby contenders and may know their habits a bit, helping him pace his horse. He's got a solid gate for this fast horse who maybe among those pushing the pace.

Paddy O'Prado (20-1) Post: 10 Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Now if there is anyone who want to get back on the winning side of the Derby, it's Kent Desormeaux. And if we were picking off based on jockeys, he may be our pick. His horse is an interesting dilemma, which shows that horse racing odds are like the stock market and you can't really trust them since Paddy O'Prado is at 20-1 while the horse that beat him at the Bluegrass is 30-1. But, Desormeaux's on a fast horse and if he gets a window, it maybe curtains for the rest of the field.

Lookin At Lucky (3-1) Post: 1 Jockey: Garrett Gomez
This horse is the morning line favorite but may run into some issues during the Derby. While the rail is where the dirt will be at its best if its raining or sloppy, the one gate is not where you want to be. 19 other horses are going to want to get to the rail. Lookin At Lucky has stalker speed for this field and could be dangerous, but he could also find himself caught up in traffic unable to make a move.

Super Saver (15-1) Post: 4 Jockey: Calvin Borel
The favorite son of Churchill Downs, Calvin Borel started this year off well winning 5 races on opening day at the Downs. He's got a fast horse that likes to stay up front, which will give Borel a shot at the rail when he needs it. This horse is one of our favorites to win it, and at 15-1, is a nice bet on any trifecta. Look for this horse to make an early move and cause some others to make different choices of where they want to go.

Jackson Bend (15-1) Post: 13 Jockey: Mike Smith
If you're looking for someone we haven't seen in the winners circle, this is your bet. Jackson Bend has been our favorite since Sunday when Eskendereya scratched. Jackson Bend finished behind the ex-favorite twice, so if Eskendereya was anything remotely close to the dominate horse everyone said he was, Jackson Bend should have a great shot at the roses. He'll should find himself in the upper half of the field for most of the race, and has perfect stalking speed to make a stretch run at the leaders. Look for this horse to stay in the top 4 or 5. But, be careful, this will be Smith's first graded race riding Jackson Bend.

Dublin (12-1) Post: 17 Jockey: Terry Thompson
Nothing about this horse really stands out and says winner. He's a slow horse who only really ran with the leaders in Arkansas and finished third there. He has seen a good majority these horses before, to varying degree of success. And the outside gate is not really his thing, but may help him with his slow start.

Discreetly Mine (30-1) Post: 15 Jockey: Javier Castellano
I think Discreetly Mine will be a good horse to watch, but in the long run will be a heart breaker. He's ran well, and likes the front of the pack, which is good, but he strikes me as the type that will get around the final turn and just not have it in him. He hasn't really beaten or seen too many of the contenders, which in normal, but the ones he seen were equally less impressive.

Noble's Promise (12-1) Post: 3 Jockey:TBA
Noble's Promise has faced his fare share of Derby contenders, especially Lookin At Lucky, unable to beat him in three attempts. In his defense, he's finished right behind him in all three, and all three have had a large group, but after a bad showing at the Arkansas Derby, Noble's Promise is going to have to have a really good day in the slop. The 3 post might be good for him though as he can keep an eye on both the leaders and Lookin At Lucky.

Mission Impazible (20-1) Post: 14 Jockey: TBA
Mission Impazible may be right for this horse. Winner of the Louisiana Derby, he did face one of the bigger fields of not only any horse in the race, but any winner. But last time he was on the outside, he finished 4th. His problem comes in the fact that this is going to be a fast field, and he doesn't have the speed to stay up with some of the quicker horses.

Make Music For Me (50-1) Post: 9 Jockey: TBA
And so starts some of the longer shots in the Derby. This one maybe the longest of them all when its all said and done. He hasn't raced a graded race since last year, and in that race he spent most of his time in seventh out of seven before making a run and finishing third. This is a much bigger field, with much faster horses.

Back Talk (50-1) Post: 18 Jockey: Miguel Mena
Thanks to some last minute scratches by Interactif and Endorsement, Back Talk was able to make the field of 20. That being said, this is a long shot of a horse who likes the middle of the pack but coming from the 18th post will make it especially hard on him to make any noise.

Conveyance (12-1) Post: 12 Jockey: TBA
This horse may be more a victim of a non-scientific mathematical system than a bad horse. He's fast and like to be up front which will be needed, because I've beaten the fact that this is going to be a fast Derby into the ground. His odds are good, he's a proven winner, finishing no worse than 2nd. Yeah, he hasn't beaten anyone impressive, and the fields have been small, and yeah, he's coming off the 12 gate, but that may not be bad. This horse should sneak in on a trifecta if you're looking for a third horse to add on.

American Lion (30-1) Post: 7 Jockey: TBA
Another horse where you can't really find a reason why he can't win the Derby, but in the same research you can't find why he should. He falls into the mold, a fast horse who like it up front, has a solid gate that may actually work against him since they'll all come crashing in on the 7-8-9 horses. He's ran in some nice size races and done well including a wire to wire win in Illinois. Could be worth the risk, especially at 30-1.

Homeboykris (50-1) Post: 19 Jockey: TBA
We'll ignore the fact that his trainer has skirted the rules before, although that stops me from putting $2 down if he ends up being the longest of long shots. He's finished fifth in both of his graded stakes this year and is just not impressive enough to win the Derby. The one thing that this horse does have is the possibility to be the pace horse early on. In both of his races, he's ran second coming down the stretch before being over taken by the field to fall into fifth.

Awesome Act (10-1) Post: 16 Jockey: Julien Leparoux
This horse does live up to its odds, and shows well in races, but they've all been smaller fields. The downside is that he hasn't beaten anyone really worth it. He's also a slower horse who may be hurt by the pace.

Ice Box (10-1) Post: 2 Jockey:TBA
Ice Box runs like one. He's a slow moving horse that stays in the back of the pack before he makes a move down the stretch. And while that may work even in 11 horse fields, he's going to have to get around 8 more horses if that's his m.o. for the Derby. Watch him make a move around the 3/4 pole to push the front, but it will depend on where everyone else is before that. He may have a late push, but if other horses have crossed the line before then, it's all for not. he may have an adverse affect on those around him right out of the gate.

Dean's Kitten (50-1) Post: 8 Jockey: TBA
This little cat is a long shot for a reason. Although he won the Lanes End, he hasn't really beaten anyone, and in fact has lost to two contenders in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf race last year. He's one of the slower horses in the field and doesn't have the speed necessary to make any waves in the Derby. But hey, its nice just to be nominated.

Devil May Care (10-1) Post: 11 Jockey: TBA
With the way the ladies dominated horse racing last year it makes some sense to enter this little filly in the Derby, but it really wasn't a bright idea. She hasn't dominated the female circuit like Rachael Alexandria or Zenyatta did last year. And I understand that if she blew them all away on Oaks, it would be a what-if, but they'll end up saying, why? The plus side for her, if there is one, is the 11 post will help her shape the race early on, and may be the closes she gets to the front all day.

Try this trifecta on for size: Jackson Bend, Super Saver and Conveyance. Good luck!